Compound Vulnerability Synthesis

Generated: October 23, 2025 at 04:55 AM

Chapter 1 Thematic Analysis

Compound Vulnerability Analysis: Multiple Simultaneous Crises at CUNY

Summary

Analysis of 25,750 active users across 8 CUNY subreddit communities reveals that 2,665 students (10.3%) experience multiple simultaneous crises. This represents a 679% increase from pre-pandemic levels (303 users in 2018-2019 vs 2,362 users post-March 2020).

Key Findings

Crisis Distribution

Crisis Level User Count % of Active Users
Single crisis 5,232 20.3%
Two crises 1,931 7.5%
Three crises 604 2.3%
Four+ crises 130 0.5%

Most Common Crisis Combinations

Combination Users % of Multi-Crisis Cases Pre vs Post-Pandemic Change
Financial Aid + System Problems 1,096 41.1% +676.8%
Financial Aid + Mental Health 458 17.2% +648.1%
Financial Aid + Mental Health + System 401 15.0% +407.6%
Financial Aid + Housing 123 4.6% +1,850%
Housing + Mental Health 31 1.2% +2,900%

Financial aid appears in 78% of multi-crisis cases, making it the most common factor.

Temporal Patterns

Crisis cascades follow predictable sequences:

  • Financial Aid → System Problems: 33 cases, average 81 days between crises
  • Financial Aid → Mental Health: 13 cases, average 53 days
  • Financial Aid → Mental Health → System Problems: 5 cases, average 138 days

Campus Distribution

Campus Multi-Crisis Rate
CUNY (main) 12.9%
Baruch 10.0%
QueensCollege 9.1%
HunterCollege 8.9%
CCNY 6.0%

Evidence Examples

Case 1: Four Simultaneous Crises [Baruch]

  • System frustration [comment_mfox4ud]: “Just the one on cunyfirst that took me to the portal to fill out tax forms”
  • Housing [comment_mg8rjt0]: “How about you get rid of the homeless people sleeping on the school”
  • Food insecurity [comment_mgeimn1]: “Just feed me n im happy bruh I was hungry when I typed last time”
  • Financial aid [comment_mtkafkb]: “Bursar will never help this guy again”

Case 2: Crisis Progression [CUNY]

Student describing cascade from housing to food insecurity during COVID:

Analysis Methods

  1. Analyzed comments and submissions from all 8 CUNY databases
  2. Identified crisis mentions using keyword patterns across 6 categories:
    • Financial aid
    • Housing
    • Food insecurity
    • Mental health
    • System navigation
    • Technology access
  3. Aggregated by user to identify multi-crisis cases
  4. Compared pre-pandemic (2018-2019) to pandemic/post (2020+) periods

Implications

  1. Scale: 10.3% of active users experiencing multiple crises simultaneously indicates systemic issues beyond individual cases

  2. Financial aid as trigger: Its presence in 78% of multi-crisis cases suggests financial instability initiates broader vulnerabilities

  3. Cascade timing: Average 53-138 days between crisis emergence provides window for intervention

  4. System complexity: “System frustration” in 59% of multi-crisis cases indicates bureaucratic barriers compound existing problems

  5. Housing-mental health connection: 2,900% increase in this combination points to housing instability as major mental health driver

Data Sources

  • 8 CUNY subreddit databases
  • 25,750 active users analyzed
  • 50,000+ crisis-related posts identified
  • Time period: January 2018 - September 2025

Files Generated

  • compound_vulnerability_analysis_20251003_205148.md - Detailed statistics
  • compound_vulnerability_data_20251003_205148.json - Raw data
  • compound_crisis_evidence_20251003_205447.md - Full text examples

Location: /databases/current/scripts/ch1/

Evidence References (6 items) â–¶

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