User Growth vs Content Growth Validation Analysis
Generated: 2025-10-03 20:41:37
Executive Summary
This analysis distinguishes between real crisis intensification versus platform adoption/disclosure shift by comparing user growth rates against content growth rates across CUNY subreddits.
Key Metrics Explained:
- User Growth Ratio: How many more unique users participated post-2020 vs pre-2020
- Content Growth Ratio: How much more content was created post-2020 vs pre-2020
- Posts Per User Ratio: How much individual posting behavior changed
Interpretation Framework:
- If user growth ≈ content growth: Platform adoption shift (more people discussing same issues)
- If content growth » user growth: Real crisis intensification (same people experiencing more/worse crises)
- If posts/user increased significantly: Individual crisis intensity increased
Overall Growth Analysis (All CUNY Subreddits)
By Subreddit
| Subreddit |
Pre-2020 Users |
Post-2020 Users |
User Growth |
Pre-2020 Posts |
Post-2020 Posts |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
| Baruch |
997 |
7,866 |
7.9x |
11,061 |
109,976 |
9.9x |
1.3x |
| BrooklynCollege |
71 |
358 |
5.0x |
194 |
1,084 |
5.6x |
1.1x |
| CCNY |
109 |
1,367 |
12.5x |
371 |
10,015 |
27.0x |
2.2x |
| CUNY |
206 |
8,966 |
43.5x |
1,052 |
93,107 |
88.5x |
2.0x |
| HunterCollege |
288 |
2,995 |
10.4x |
1,102 |
26,553 |
24.1x |
2.3x |
| JohnJay |
14 |
74 |
5.3x |
17 |
186 |
10.9x |
2.1x |
| QueensCollege |
522 |
2,644 |
5.1x |
4,185 |
24,442 |
5.8x |
1.2x |
Crisis Topic Analysis
Financial Aid
| Subreddit |
User Growth |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
Interpretation |
| Baruch |
9.7x |
10.8x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
| BrooklynCollege |
7.8x |
4.9x |
0.6x |
Mixed pattern |
| CCNY |
17.2x |
18.6x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
| CUNY |
51.4x |
71.1x |
1.4x |
Mixed pattern |
| HunterCollege |
15.7x |
25.3x |
1.6x |
Mixed pattern |
| QueensCollege |
8.1x |
9.3x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
Food Insecurity
| Subreddit |
User Growth |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
Interpretation |
| Baruch |
8.8x |
10.2x |
1.2x |
Platform adoption |
| CCNY |
4.0x |
3.2x |
0.8x |
Platform adoption |
| CUNY |
57.0x |
50.3x |
0.9x |
Mixed pattern |
| HunterCollege |
24.5x |
38.0x |
1.6x |
Mixed pattern |
| JohnJay |
0.3x |
0.3x |
1.0x |
Platform adoption |
| QueensCollege |
7.8x |
8.6x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
Housing
| Subreddit |
User Growth |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
Interpretation |
| Baruch |
8.1x |
10.0x |
1.2x |
Platform adoption |
| BrooklynCollege |
4.6x |
5.6x |
1.2x |
Platform adoption |
| CCNY |
18.6x |
17.8x |
1.0x |
Platform adoption |
| CUNY |
44.5x |
62.4x |
1.4x |
Mixed pattern |
| HunterCollege |
14.4x |
20.1x |
1.4x |
Mixed pattern |
| JohnJay |
5.3x |
8.0x |
1.5x |
Mixed pattern |
| QueensCollege |
5.3x |
6.4x |
1.2x |
Platform adoption |
Mental Health
| Subreddit |
User Growth |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
Interpretation |
| Baruch |
10.3x |
12.4x |
1.2x |
Mixed pattern |
| CCNY |
33.0x |
37.7x |
1.1x |
Mixed pattern |
| CUNY |
71.9x |
94.2x |
1.3x |
Mixed pattern |
| HunterCollege |
22.8x |
24.4x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
| JohnJay |
1.0x |
4.0x |
4.0x |
Crisis intensification |
| QueensCollege |
4.3x |
4.6x |
1.1x |
Platform adoption |
Cunyfirst
| Subreddit |
User Growth |
Content Growth |
Posts/User Change |
Interpretation |
| Baruch |
7.7x |
9.4x |
1.2x |
Platform adoption |
| BrooklynCollege |
5.5x |
3.6x |
0.7x |
Platform adoption |
| CCNY |
20.8x |
26.4x |
1.3x |
Mixed pattern |
| CUNY |
44.3x |
59.5x |
1.3x |
Mixed pattern |
| HunterCollege |
17.9x |
31.6x |
1.8x |
Mixed pattern |
| QueensCollege |
6.1x |
7.7x |
1.3x |
Platform adoption |
Key Findings
- Average User Growth: 12.8x
- Average Content Growth: 24.6x
- Average Posts/User Change: 1.7x
VALIDATION RESULT: Evidence supports REAL CRISIS INTENSIFICATION
The disproportionate content growth compared to user growth indicates that existing community members were experiencing and discussing crises at significantly higher rates post-2020, rather than simply more users joining the platform.
Methodological Notes
- Analysis excludes deleted users to focus on identifiable community members
- CUNYuncensored may show anomalous patterns as it was created during the pandemic
- Keyword matching uses case-insensitive partial string matching
- Pre-2020 period: All data before January 1, 2020
- Post-2020 period: January 1, 2020 onwards
SQL Queries for Reproducibility
-- Overall User and Content Growth
SELECT
CASE WHEN created_utc < 1577836800 THEN 'pre-2020'
ELSE 'post-2020' END as period,
COUNT(DISTINCT author) as unique_active_users,
COUNT(*) as total_posts,
CAST(COUNT(*) AS REAL) / COUNT(DISTINCT author) as posts_per_user
FROM (
SELECT author, created_utc FROM submissions
WHERE author != '[deleted]' AND author IS NOT NULL
UNION ALL
SELECT author, created_utc FROM comments
WHERE author != '[deleted]' AND author IS NOT NULL
)
GROUP BY period;
-- Crisis Topic Analysis (example for financial aid)
SELECT
CASE WHEN created_utc < 1577836800 THEN 'pre-2020'
ELSE 'post-2020' END as period,
COUNT(DISTINCT author) as unique_users_discussing_topic,
COUNT(*) as total_topic_posts,
CAST(COUNT(*) AS REAL) / COUNT(DISTINCT author) as topic_posts_per_user
FROM (
SELECT author, created_utc FROM submissions
WHERE (title LIKE '%financial aid%' OR selftext LIKE '%financial aid%' OR
title LIKE '%TAP%' OR selftext LIKE '%TAP%' OR
title LIKE '%FAFSA%' OR selftext LIKE '%FAFSA%')
AND author != '[deleted]' AND author IS NOT NULL
UNION ALL
SELECT author, created_utc FROM comments
WHERE (body LIKE '%financial aid%' OR body LIKE '%TAP%' OR body LIKE '%FAFSA%')
AND author != '[deleted]' AND author IS NOT NULL
)
GROUP BY period;