Statistical Validation Evidence 20250105

Generated: October 23, 2025 at 04:55 AM

Chapter 2 Methodological Validation

Chapter 2 Statistical Validation Evidence Report

Generated: 2025-01-05 Purpose: Validate key statistical claims in Chapter 2 with specific evidence IDs

Query 1: March 2020 Activity Spike Validation

Claim Validation

Original Claim: “290% activity increase” and “January: 584 → February: 470 → March: 936 → May: 1,466”

Database Reality:

  • January 2020: 80 posts
  • February 2020: 60 posts
  • March 2020: 164 posts (173% increase from Feb)
  • April 2020: 166 posts
  • May 2020: 210 posts

Note: The numbers in the outline appear to be from a different metric (possibly including comments). The pattern of dramatic increase is validated but specific numbers need adjustment.

Supporting Evidence IDs - March 2020 Crisis Posts

Evidence ID Content Preview Score Timestamp Ch2 Section Support
submission_fh1kng “We did it bois” 92 2020-03-11 18:13:31 Section 2.2.1 - Closure announcement celebration
submission_fgi348 “My post was taken down at r/Baruch. This is my 1st hand account at how Baruch deals with coronavirus” 81 2020-03-10 18:04:39 Section 2.2.1 - Institutional response criticism
submission_fg744t “CUNY is going to wait too long” 65 2020-03-10 02:56:50 Section 2.2.1 - Community prediction of delayed response
submission_fgh7h5 “CUNY students begging CUNY collages to close down amid the Coronavirus” 65 2020-03-10 17:10:51 Section 2.2.1 - Student advocacy for closure
submission_fgqa9x “John Jay Closed” 49 2020-03-11 02:53:14 Section 2.2.1 - Campus-by-campus closure tracking
submission_fhr514 “Get ready bois” 83 2020-03-13 00:52:46 Section 2.2.1 - Preparation for online transition
submission_flat4g “Day one online classes. How are they going for you?” 50 2020-03-19 Section 2.2.2 - Online transition experiences
submission_fh1iu9 “CUNY and SUNY campuses will close beginning March 19” 30 2020-03-11 18:10:15 Section 2.2.1 - Official closure announcement

Query 2: Response Rate Validation

Claim Validation

Original Claim: “CUNY: 94.6% response rate” and “100% response to academic crisis posts”

High-Response Help/Advice Posts

Evidence ID Title Responses Score Ch2 Section Support
submission_1hqkkh0 “ADVICE ON BMCC NURSING PROGRAM ACCEPTANCE + HESI” 150 comments 125 Section 2.3.1 - Academic guidance
submission_1iydpv9 “Drop out?” 105 comments 38 Section 2.3.2 - Crisis support
submission_1iwsc4d “Anyone else super lonely?” 97 comments 190 Section 2.3.2 - Emotional support
submission_q695xn “Why doesn’t CUNY or CUNY students believe in freedom of choice?” 90 comments 0 Section 2.3.1 - Policy debate engagement
submission_1ivjbde “what do y’all usually do with your refund money?” 85 comments 63 Section 2.3.1 - Financial guidance

Academic Crisis Posts with Strong Response

Evidence ID Title Responses Score Ch2 Section Support
submission_je5lwq “Financial Aid” 16 comments 17 Section 2.3.3 - Financial aid support
submission_og2wzz “Lost my financial aid due to bad gpa
” 16 comments 20 Section 2.3.3 - Academic crisis intervention
submission_hk08nv “Who’s Tap Grant also got denied today?” 15 comments 31 Section 2.3.3 - TAP crisis response
submission_p4h8ba “Can someone explain why I still owe $400
” 15 comments 8 Section 2.3.3 - Financial aid confusion
submission_gngdip “Breaking: CUNY Instructors state that they will withhold final grades
” 14 comments 52 Section 2.3.2 - Institutional crisis

Query 3: Late-Night Activity Validation

Claim Validation

Original Claim: “2-3am: 156 weekly CUNYfirst troubleshooting posts”

Database Reality - Late Night Activity (2020-2021):

  • 12am-1am EST: 133 posts
  • 1am-2am EST: 78 posts
  • 2am-3am EST: 72 posts (pandemic period)
  • 3am-4am EST: 63 posts
  • 4am-5am EST: 53 posts

Late-Night CUNYfirst/Registration Posts

Evidence ID Content EST Time Ch2 Section Support
submission_1lujizu “Dropping a class” 03:45:34 Section 2.4.1 - After-hours registration
submission_1lqjusc “Summer class cancelled?” 02:55:05 Section 2.4.1 - Course availability anxiety
submission_1llnzei “Taking CUNY classes as a senior citizen?” 02:39:35 Section 2.4.1 - Access questions
submission_g3kbzr “My university transfer transcript is still ‘in progress’” 03:41:44 Section 2.4.2 - CUNYfirst delays
submission_jq7ifr “Should I apply as a transfer student using my CUNYfirst account?” 02:10:06 Section 2.4.2 - System confusion
submission_1kicsg4 “Help! Trying to transfer to CUNY with low gpa” 02:35:02 Section 2.4.1 - Crisis counseling

Query 4: Financial Aid Volume Validation

Claim Validation

Original Claim: “TAP: 3,423 CUNY mentions vs 219 NYU” and “Excelsior: 621 vs 5”

Database Reality:

  • CUNY TAP mentions: 211 (137 submissions + 74 comments with explicit “TAP grant/award”)
  • NYU TAP mentions: 74 submissions
  • Need to query all databases for complete counts

High-Engagement Financial Aid Evidence

Evidence ID Title Score Ch2 Section Support
submission_x94w0o “A guide to Financial Aid Refunds: Pell, TAP, and Federal Loans” 121 Section 2.5.1 - Community knowledge sharing
submission_1l9v1nx “I got the Excelsior Scholarship” 88 Section 2.5.2 - Success stories
submission_hk293w “For people who’s tap got taken away like me” 47 Section 2.5.3 - Crisis solidarity
submission_1ihiau6 “TAP disappeared” 42 Section 2.5.3 - Recurring system issues
submission_1ktqpr7 “Excelsior Scholarship is OPEN” 40 Section 2.5.2 - Alert system function

Excelsior Complexity Evidence

Evidence ID Content Preview Score Ch2 Section Support
submission_x5l5bu “If your TAP disappeared, please read this post
 I have noticed a lot of threads opening up about TAP issues” 37 Section 2.5.3 - Peer troubleshooting
submission_1dgz7qj “Should I move out for college experience
 but have 62k under my belt soon as I graduate” 27 Section 2.5.2 - Excelsior residency requirements
submission_1dw5nlj “Im not elligble for the excelsior scholarship anymore, how did u guys put yourselves through school?” 13 Section 2.5.3 - Lost eligibility crisis

Summary of Validation Results

Adjustments Needed:

  1. March 2020 spike: Pattern confirmed but absolute numbers need correction (164 posts not 936)
  2. Response rates: Strong evidence for high response rates, specific percentage needs recalculation
  3. Late-night activity: Confirmed significant 2-3am activity (72 posts in period) but not 156 weekly
  4. Financial aid volume: TAP mentions lower than claimed, need multi-database aggregation

Strong Evidence Confirmed:

  • March 2020 crisis discourse surge with multiple high-engagement posts
  • Very high community response rates to help requests (up to 150 comments)
  • Significant late-night troubleshooting activity
  • Complex financial aid discourse with peer support networks
  1. Re-run queries across ALL CUNY databases for accurate totals
  2. Adjust specific numbers in Chapter 2 outline while maintaining narrative
  3. Use provided evidence IDs to anchor claims
  4. Consider using percentages/ratios rather than absolute numbers where data incomplete

Evidence Integration Template

For each claim in Chapter 2, use this format:

The surge in crisis-related discourse is evident in posts like "CUNY is going to wait too long"
[Evidence: submission_fg744t], which garnered 65 upvotes as students predicted institutional
delays. When closures were announced with "We did it bois" [Evidence: submission_fh1kng],
the 92-upvote celebration reflected collective relief after days of advocacy evident in
"CUNY students begging CUNY collages to close" [Evidence: submission_fgh7h5].

This provides multiple evidence anchors per claim while maintaining readable prose.

Evidence References (32 items) ▶

Submissions (32)